I'm about to present to over 100 financial planners on the state of the market, and I'm making a bold call. I think Austin is going to have the biggest comeback in the history of this city. I put 10 toes down on it. The water is boiling beneath the surface, and the people who see it early are going to be the ones who benefit most.
Why I'm Calling This the Biggest Comeback Yet
My read is built on two things: 18 years of pattern recognition in Austin real estate, and a lot of conversations. I track airport expansion, the new convention center, every kind of transportation investment, generational wealth transfer, rental data, job sectors, minimum wage growth, demographics, even how many dogs live in a given area. And I host a lot. From January 1 to mid-April, I've had close to 4,000 people in my home, and I learn a wild amount about where buyers are actually putting their money. For the longer Austin thesis, I laid it out in Austin is the most important city in the world right now.
The Bigger Forces Behind It
- $124 trillion of generational wealth is transferring over the next two decades
- About 65% of millennials are expected to inherit real estate
- AI is going to make more millionaires than anything else, and force a lot of career transitions in the process
- The creative class that makes Austin special is staying and building businesses here. I have a friend who left Meta and now does wallpaper out of her home. That's the shift.
What I'd Do Right Now if I Were Buying
Values right now are basically below 2020 levels. You can essentially go back in time and buy the house you could have bought five or six years ago. Rates are higher and yes, your monthly payment is high, but you can get a 5.5% rate and sellers are paying for buy-downs. Personally I wouldn't pre-pay interest or have the seller buy down the rate. I think waiting it out is the smarter long game. And I don't think waiting for rates to drop should be your buying motivation. There's a lot of inventory and a lot of leverage. My full buyer playbook is in the complete guide to buying in Austin in 2026.
What I'd Do if I Owned Real Estate Right Now
If you can hold, hold. I'm working with a lot of millennials who don't want to be landlords. The HVAC, the insurance, the new roof, the lower rents, the tenants, and they're done. I get it. If you have to sell, I'll get you as much as possible. But if you can stay in for another three or four years, you want to be holding when this wave actually hits. My complete selling guide covers the pricing strategy and net proceeds math if it's time to move.
The Window I See for Buyers
If you're renting cheap and stacking cash, good for you, keep doing it. But I think you have about 12 more months before you start catching the ride up. If you can buy this year, try to. The motivated-seller environment plus the long-term Austin thesis is the kind of setup that compounds.
