Austin's social scene is expanding fast, and it maps directly onto what I track every day in the Austin real estate market. New membership clubs, bathhouses, and founders' dinners are opening constantly. Here is my honest take on whether the city can actually support all of them, in my own words from the episode.
Why I love Austin's membership boom
I, for one, am excited about all of Austin's new membership clubs. The addition of unique experiences, and more diversity in activities besides just going to a bar is a good thing! To name a few we have Paddle 39, the Meow Wolf's Bathhouse, Townhome, and the Portal. It seems like every day I'm getting an ad on Instagram of a new founders club or dinner series. I love that there are more opportunities to connect and build community in a city that has evolved so much over the last 20 years.
Community is the whole reason I do what I do, which is why I've had thousands of people through my own home. Excitement aside, though, the math gives me pause.
The density math doesn't add up (yet)
When you don't have enough density, how are all of these memberships going to survive when they're all $300 to $500 a month? Realistically, there are only 1 million people in Austin proper. About half of that population is between the ages of 25 and 55. If you assume that maybe 10% of those people can afford one of these memberships, let alone two of these memberships, there are just potentially not enough people for the amount of membership clubs coming to Austin.
Density is the whole game here, which is exactly why I pay such close attention to policy like the zoning changes that could reshape the city.
The competition for your monthly membership dollar
For example, if I join a gym like Lifetime or the This Gym, that's $300++ a month and it has saunas, cold plunges, and coworking space, why would I join a Bath house? Why would I join that gym if I live in an apartment downtown that also has all of those same features? Then you have people with hobbies like golf, pickleball or Paddle where in order to play consistently you have to have a membership. That doesn't leave a lot more room for me to join a club like the Townhome or the Portal unless I value nightlife. But with concert tickets $100-$150+, who has the money to join all these clubs and go out in Austin?
What this means for Austin real estate
This is more than a lifestyle trend to me. Where amenities, walkable density, and disposable income cluster is the same map I read when I advise buyers, sellers, and investors. The clubs that survive will sit where the density and the money already are.
Thinking about your next move in Austin?
